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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as China ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.