Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
